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DAILY INSIGHTS & INTEL
Strait of Hormuz Status at a Glance
- Vessel Traffic: The strait remains effectively closed to commercial shipping, but a deal reached by the U.S. and Iran on June 14 and 15 points toward reopening. Formal reopening is tied to the Geneva signing on June 192, though the Pentagon estimates mine clearance could take up to six months3. On June 15, 12 transits (6 inbound and 6 outbound) were recorded versus a pre conflict average of roughly 178 per day4.
- Insurance & Shipping Economics: War risk premiums have surged from roughly 0.25% to between 3% and 8% of vessel value ($3M to $8M per large tanker transit)5. Some insurers have suspended or withdrawn war risk cover entirely6. The U.S. DFC established a reinsurance facility providing up to $40B in coverage7, but insurers will require sustained stability, measured in months rather than days, before restoring normal terms, and residual mine, drone, and missile risk will keep premiums elevated in the near term5.
- Negotiations & Ceasefire: On June 14 and 15 the U.S. and Iran electronically signed a memorandum of understanding, a ceasefire of 60 days on all fronts that lifts the dueling blockades and reopens the strait, with formal signing set for Geneva on June 198.
The Impact of Crude Oil on Nitrile Glove Costs
* Approximate cost structure based on generic 3.5g nitrile gloves
An Estimated 76% of glove costs are directly impacted by crude oil price.
Nitrile Glove Potential Stabilization Timeline
Day 1
Strait of Hormuz Restored
Strait of Hormuz vessel traffic normalizes.
Month 1-4
Feedstock Supply Stabilizes
Butadiene and acrylonitrile stabilizes and NBR costs reduce over time as damaged infrastructure repairs.
Month 5+
Restored Finished Goods Prices
Manufacturers incorporate lower cost NBR, reducing FG pricing toward pre-conflict norms.
Month 6-10
Lower-Cost Products Hits US Supply Chains
Lower-cost product enters the US Supply chain and cycles through 2-3 months of FIFO inventory.
Month 11+
End Users see reduced prices
Reduced-cost product begins reaching end user facilities.
Day 1
Strait of Hormuz Restored
Strait of Hormuz vessel traffic normalizes.
Month 1-4
Feedstock Supply Stabilizes
Butadiene and acrylonitrile stabilizes and NBR costs reduce over time as damaged infrastructure repairs.
Month 5+
Restored Finished Goods Prices
Manufacturers incorporate lower cost NBR, reducing FG pricing toward pre-conflict norms.
Month 6-10
Lower-Cost Products Hits US Supply Chains
Lower-cost product enters the US Supply chain and cycles through 2-3 months of FIFO inventory.
Month 11+
End Users see reduced prices
Reduced-cost product begins reaching end user facilities.
Day 1
Strait of Hormuz Restored
Strait of Hormuz vessel traffic normalizes.
Month 1-4
Feedstock Supply Stabilizes
Butadiene and acrylonitrile stabilizes and NBR costs reduce over time as damaged infrastructure repairs.
Month 5+
Restored Finished Goods Prices
Manufacturers incorporate lower cost NBR, reducing FG pricing toward pre-conflict norms.
Month 6-10
Lower-Cost Products Hits US Supply Chains
Lower-cost product enters the US Supply chain and cycles through 2-3 months of FIFO inventory.
Month 11+
End Users see reduced prices
Reduced-cost product begins reaching end user facilities.
* Return to normal likely to be more nuanced as logistics easing in the Strait of Hormuz and infrastructure repairs will be gradual.
Critical Metrics to Watch
- Daily vessel traffic and war-risk vessel insurance premiums are early indicators of Strait of Hormuz viability.
- Recovering vessel counts and reductions in insurer coverage costs will signal improving energy flow.
- Even as transit improves, full supply chain normalization — freight patterns, inventory, and supplier confidence — will likely take months.
Supply Chain Impact
Downstream Product Impact
- Limited flow of crude oil impacting NBR availability
- Manufacturers are sourcing NBR at highly elevated prices
- FG output slowed in April and May planning. Expected to continue in June.
- Cost of nitrile gloves have risen April and May production planning. Expected to continue in June.
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- Supply of raw materials remains stable
- Resin prices increasing, translating to an increase in RM price
- Manufacturer production remains stable
- Potential for future market price adjustment due to RM cost
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- Supply of raw materials remains stable
- Resin prices increasing, translating to an increase in RM price
- Manufacturer production remains stable
- Potential for future market price adjustment due to impact on production cost (vary by product)
1 U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), "World Oil Transit Chokepoints" analysis.
3 The Washington Post / AP, "Clearing Strait of Hormuz of mines could take 6 months, Pentagon tells Congress," April 22, 2026.
4 Windward AI, Maritime AI Platform, Strait of Hormuz transit data.
5 Khaleej Times, "Strait of Hormuz reopening: Shipping costs and insurance premiums."