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DAILY INSIGHTS & INTEL
Strait of Hormuz Status
- Strait Status at a Glance: The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to normal commercial shipping under competing blockades. Iran restricted passage beginning February 281 and the U.S. imposed a naval blockade on Iranian ports on April 132, reducing transit to a fraction of pre-conflict levels. The U.S. launched Project Freedom on May 4 to escort neutral merchant vessels3, before pausing it to allow time for a deal to end the Iran war4.
- Vessel Traffic: : On May 7, 2 transits were recorded (2 inbound, 0 outbound)5. Pre-conflict, the Strait averaged approximately 178 transits per day6. Since the beginning of the conflict, vessel traffic has steadily been below 10% of normal pre-conflict levels.
- Insurance & Shipping Economics: War-risk premiums have surged from roughly 0.25% of vessel value to 3%–8%, or $3M–$8M per large tanker transit7. Some insurers have withdrawn hull war cover entirely8. The U.S. DFC established a $40B reinsurance facility to backstop coverage9. However, insurers will likely require months of sustained stability before restoring normal terms. Mine clearance alone could take up to six months10.
- Negotiations & Ceasefire: The April 8 ceasefire remains technically in effect but is increasingly fragile. Diplomatic efforts continue through Pakistani mediators, and Secretary of State Rubio said on May 8 that the U.S. expects a response from Iran on its proposal for a formal 60-day ceasefire that would lead to negotiations on Iran's nuclear program and reopening the strait. However, Iranian officials have publicly rejected key concessions, and analysts say Tehran's leadership is divided over whether to engage or drag out talks closer to the U.S. midterm elections for better leverage11.
The Impact of Crude Oil on Nitrile Glove Costs
* Approximate cost structure based on generic 3.5g nitrile gloves
An Estimated 76% of glove costs are directly impacted by crude oil price.
Nitrile Glove Potential Stabilization Timeline
Day 1
Strait of Hormuz Restored
Strait of Hormuz vessel traffic normalizes.
Month 1-4
Feedstock Supply Stabilizes
Butadiene and acrylonitrile stabilizes and NBR costs reduce over time as damaged infrastructure repairs.
Month 5+
Restored Finished Goods Prices
Manufacturers incorporate lower cost NBR, reducing FG pricing toward pre-conflict norms.
Month 6-10
Lower-Cost Products Hits US Supply Chains
Lower-cost product enters the US Supply chain and cycles through 2-3 months of FIFO inventory.
Month 11+
End Users see reduced prices
Reduced-cost product begins reaching end user facilities.
Day 1
Strait of Hormuz Restored
Strait of Hormuz vessel traffic normalizes.
Month 1-4
Feedstock Supply Stabilizes
Butadiene and acrylonitrile stabilizes and NBR costs reduce over time as damaged infrastructure repairs.
Month 5+
Restored Finished Goods Prices
Manufacturers incorporate lower cost NBR, reducing FG pricing toward pre-conflict norms.
Month 6-10
Lower-Cost Products Hits US Supply Chains
Lower-cost product enters the US Supply chain and cycles through 2-3 months of FIFO inventory.
Month 11+
End Users see reduced prices
Reduced-cost product begins reaching end user facilities.
Day 1
Strait of Hormuz Restored
Strait of Hormuz vessel traffic normalizes.
Month 1-4
Feedstock Supply Stabilizes
Butadiene and acrylonitrile stabilizes and NBR costs reduce over time as damaged infrastructure repairs.
Month 5+
Restored Finished Goods Prices
Manufacturers incorporate lower cost NBR, reducing FG pricing toward pre-conflict norms.
Month 6-10
Lower-Cost Products Hits US Supply Chains
Lower-cost product enters the US Supply chain and cycles through 2-3 months of FIFO inventory.
Month 11+
End Users see reduced prices
Reduced-cost product begins reaching end user facilities.
* Return to normal likely to be more nuanced as logistics easing in the Strait of Hormuz and infrastructure repairs will be gradual.
Critical Metrics to Watch
- Daily vessel traffic and war-risk vessel insurance premiums are early indicators of Strait of Hormuz viability.
- Recovering vessel counts and reductions in insurer coverage costs will signal improving energy flow.
- Even as transit improves, full supply chain normalization — freight patterns, inventory, and supplier confidence — will likely take months.
Supply Chain Impact
Downstream Product Impact
- Limited flow of crude oil impacting NBR availability
- Manufacturers are sourcing NBR at highly elevated prices
- FG output slowed in April and May planning. Expected to continue in June.
- Cost of nitrile gloves have risen April and May production planning. Expected to continue in June.
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- Supply of raw materials remains stable
- Resin prices increasing, translating to an increase in RM price
- Manufacturer production remains stable
- Potential for future market price adjustment due to RM cost
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- Supply of raw materials remains stable
- Resin prices increasing, translating to an increase in RM price
- Manufacturer production remains stable
- Potential for future market price adjustment due to impact on production cost (vary by product)
1 UK House of Commons Library, "Israel/US-Iran conflict 2026: Reopening the Strait ofHormuz," Research Briefing CBP-10636.
2 U.S. Central Command, "U.S. to Blockade Ships Entering or Exiting Iranian Ports," Press Release, April 13, 2026.
3 U.S. Central Command, "U.S. Military Supports Launch of Project Freedom in Strait of Hormuz," Press Release, May 4, 2026.
4 NPR, "Trump says he's paused U.S. effort to guide stranded vessels out of Strait of Hormuz," updated May 6, 2026.
5 Windward AI, Maritime AI Platform — Strait of Hormuz transit data, accessed May 6, 2026.
6 World Economic Forum, "How the Middle East war is turning governments into insurers of last resort," April 2026.
7 Khaleej Times, "Strait of Hormuz reopening: Shipping costs and insurance premiums."
8 Insurance Business Magazine, "Trump announces US naval blockade deepening insurance crisis," April 2026.
9 U.S. International Development Finance Corporation, "DFC, Chubb Announce Additional American Reinsurance Partners and up to $40B in Coverage for Maritime Reinsurance," April 3, 2026.
10 The Washington Post, "Strait of Hormuz mine-clearing could take 6 months, Congress is told," April 22, 2026.