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DAILY INSIGHTS & INTEL
Strait of Hormuz Status at a Glance
- Vessel Traffic:. Transits fell to 6 on July 27, roughly 8 per day on a seven-day average, or about 4% of the ~178 per day baseline before the conflict, down from 35 on July 81. The June 17 memorandum has collapsed: Iran declared the strait closed July 12 and the U.S. reimposed its naval blockade July 142. The IMO documented eight vessels struck between July 13 and July 20 and estimates roughly 80 mines remain, with a tanker reportedly detonating one on July 263 4. Recognized shipping lanes remain unusable due to mine risk, though Trump said July 27 the U.S. was having "good talks" with Iran and saw a chance of a deal5.
- Insurance & Shipping Economics: War risk premiums have risen to a current range of 7.5% to 10% of hull value as of July 22, up from 1% to 3% several weeks earlier and 30 to 40 times the 0.25% seen before the conflict. Underwriters are increasingly unwilling to write spot terms at any price3.
Critical Metrics to Watch
- Daily vessel traffic and war-risk vessel insurance premiums are early indicators of Strait of Hormuz viability.
- Recovering vessel counts and reductions in insurer coverage costs will signal improving energy flow.
- Even as transit improves, full supply chain normalization — freight patterns, inventory, and supplier confidence — will likely take months.
The Impact of Crude Oil on Nitrile Glove Costs
* Approximate cost structure based on generic 3.5g nitrile gloves
An Estimated 76% of glove costs are directly impacted by crude oil price.
Nitrile Glove Potential Stabilization Timeline
Day 1
Strait of Hormuz Restored
Strait of Hormuz vessel traffic normalizes.
Month 1-4
Feedstock Supply Stabilizes
Butadiene and acrylonitrile stabilizes and NBR costs reduce over time as damaged infrastructure repairs.
Month 5+
Restored Finished Goods Prices
Manufacturers incorporate lower cost NBR, reducing FG pricing toward pre-conflict norms.
Month 6-10
Lower-Cost Products Hits US Supply Chains
Lower-cost product enters the US Supply chain and cycles through 2-3 months of FIFO inventory.
Month 11+
End Users see reduced prices
Reduced-cost product begins reaching end user facilities.
Day 1
Strait of Hormuz Restored
Strait of Hormuz vessel traffic normalizes.
Month 1-4
Feedstock Supply Stabilizes
Butadiene and acrylonitrile stabilizes and NBR costs reduce over time as damaged infrastructure repairs.
Month 5+
Restored Finished Goods Prices
Manufacturers incorporate lower cost NBR, reducing FG pricing toward pre-conflict norms.
Month 6-10
Lower-Cost Products Hits US Supply Chains
Lower-cost product enters the US Supply chain and cycles through 2-3 months of FIFO inventory.
Month 11+
End Users see reduced prices
Reduced-cost product begins reaching end user facilities.
Day 1
Strait of Hormuz Restored
Strait of Hormuz vessel traffic normalizes.
Month 1-4
Feedstock Supply Stabilizes
Butadiene and acrylonitrile stabilizes and NBR costs reduce over time as damaged infrastructure repairs.
Month 5+
Restored Finished Goods Prices
Manufacturers incorporate lower cost NBR, reducing FG pricing toward pre-conflict norms.
Month 6-10
Lower-Cost Products Hits US Supply Chains
Lower-cost product enters the US Supply chain and cycles through 2-3 months of FIFO inventory.
Month 11+
End Users see reduced prices
Reduced-cost product begins reaching end user facilities.
* Return to normal likely to be more nuanced as logistics easing in the Strait of Hormuz and infrastructure repairs will be gradual.
Supply Chain Impact
Downstream Product Impact
Constraint
Increase
- Limited flow of crude oil impacting NBR availability
- Manufacturers are sourcing NBR at highly elevated prices
- FG output slowed in April and May planning. Expected to continue in June.
- Cost of nitrile gloves have risen April and May production planning. Expected to continue in June.
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- Supply of raw materials remains stable
- Resin prices increasing, translating to an increase in RM price
- Manufacturer production remains stable
- Potential for future market price adjustment due to RM cost
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- Supply of raw materials remains stable
- Resin prices increasing, translating to an increase in RM price
- Manufacturer production remains stable
- Potential for future market price adjustment due to impact on production cost (vary by product)
